BB play (3 betting)

• Assume nobody is folding vs. 3 bets
• Vs. frequent opener (65%+)
• Do it almost exclusively for value.
• Consider your stack-to-pot ratio (spr) if called and what your plan will be.
• 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo, KJo+
• Add in hands like 77, QJ, A9s if they never fold.
• Take out hands like KTs and 88 if they are playing tight vs. 3bets and add in hands like Kxs.
• Vs. tight opener 30-40% raises (usually accompanied by limps as well)
• Very unlikely to fold
• TT+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+
• Take out ATs, QJs, KJo if they fold to some 3 bets and add in one or two hands as bluffs that are too weak to call with.

Small PP vs 3bet ~75bbs deep

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/185/heads-up-sng/small-pp-vs-3bet-75bb-deep-1048862/

Poker Stars, $xx Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #9651022

BB: 1,440 (72 bb)
Hero (SB): 1,560 (78 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5 5
Hero raises to 50, BB raises to 160, Hero ???




Air-Bear:
The bigger villain's 3bet-fold range is, the better shoving becomes (this is obvious). The variables we should consider are villain's 3b-fold percentage and our equity vs villain's range.

The general formula to calculate your EV in this spot is:
EV = P(villain calls shove)*(equity* [chips we can win] - villain's equity* [chips we can lose]) + P(villain folds to shove)*(dead money) 
note: P(...) stands for "the probability of (...)


Now let's unleash the maths:
Imagine that you know your opponent will stack a range of 9% (A9s+, ATo+, 77+). We can calculate how much the villain should be 3betting (eg how big his 3bet-fold range is) to make a shove +EV.


Villlain's 3bet range is our variable, let it be X
P(villain calls shove) is 0.09/X
Our equity is about 39% when called
Villain's equity is 61%
We can win 74.5 bb from villain (effective stacksizes+our dead money)
We can lose 69.5 bb (72-2.5)
P(villain folds to 3B) is 1-(0.09/X)
dead money = 10.5 bb (2.5+8)

Now just fill in the info and solve the equasion for X:
EV = (0.09/X)*(0.39*74.5-0.61*69.5) + (1-(0.09/X))*10.5)
EV = (0.09/X)*(-13.34) + 1*10.5 - (0.09/X)*10.5
...
EV=0 for X~= 20.5%. So if villain's 3betting more than 20.5% (and calls the range I gave) it's a +EV play.

I hope my math is right, would be cool if someone could check it quickly

Just play around with the variables if you want to know your EV for different situations.






I understand the concept above intuitively but knowing how to do the math and playing around with the numbers is something I don't do enough of. I need to spend half a day or so with excel playing around with equities and then make a post to solidify what I learn.

Dealing With An Aggro Player

Dealing With An Aggro

• Patience
• It's impossible for me to say enough about being patient. When you realize you're in a match against one of these people, have the mindset that you are going to win. Don't get frustrated! Be pleased they sat with you. Most importantly, let the match come to you!!

• Button Adjustments
• These players will be 3-betting you very wide. It is important to stop raising the button with marginal hands. I like to start limping. One of the keys to beating these people is to see as many flops as possible. When you hit a flop, you have a great chance of getting paid. If they raise your button limps, then only call with hands that flop well such as suited connectors or broadways. If they continue to raise your button limps, it is time to look for a situation to use the limp re-raise phenomenon to your advantage.

• The Limp Re-Raise Phenomenon
• I discovered this phenomenon probably around my 8,000th heads up match. In other words, not really that long ago. However, it is a very solid concept. It holds true about 90% of the time. In a nutshell, it says that if you limp and your opponent raises and you re-raise... HE IS USUALLY NOT FOLDING! You can use this against these aggros with big hands. With big Aces, A9 and up, I will probably make it huge after he raises so I don't have to play post-flop without being committed. With hands like QQ+, I will limp and then re-raise a decent amount to build the pot. What you don't want to do is limp and smooth call his raise. You're not building the pot. REMEMBER, DO NOT be afraid of him folding. With TT and JJ, I will re-raise a huge percentage of my stack to commit myself to any flop. I just limp-shove the pocket pairs 55-99.

• Widening the All In Raise to Gather Chips
• When you become aware that your opponent is going to raise almost all of your limps, it is important to limp for the purpose of taking their raise. I do this with pocket pairs 55-88 and also with A9+. I limp these hands and just shove over the top of their raise. This adds chips to your stack to allow you to see more hands.

• Slow Playing Monsters On The Flop
• This is what you have been waiting for. This hand is the reason you are happy you sat with an aggro. When it occurs, DON'T let the opportunity pass you by. If you flop a monster (trips, top two, straight, flush, or even better) don't scare your opponent away. The river is the time to get value out of him.

• Playing Combo Draws On The Flop
• When you flop a combo draw against the aggro, it is a good idea to play it pretty fast. I like to be aggressive on the flop to see if I can get my opponent to go all the way right now. I don't like to slow play because if I brick the turn, my hand goes from being a big hand to being very mediocre.

• Don't Panic
• This is more than just being patient. When I end up playing an aggro and I am getting run over, I have taught myself to look at my chip stack and think of it doubled. I tell myself it is only a matter of time before I double up. If your chip stack gets so low where a double up won't even get you back to even, it is time to get aggressive. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. Basically, just remember not to panic unless you have under 700 chips.

• Playing Fast
• Now that I mostly play turbos, the most disappointing thing about sitting with an aggro is that it is a turbo. I honestly think you can win 65-70% of the time against an aggro if it were a regular speed match. The reason for this is because you will be dealt more hands which means the probability of getting a monster pre-flop or flopping a monster is much greater. The probably is actually twice as great because you are dealt twice the number of hands. What I have learned to do against an aggro is to make it so I am dealt as many hands as possible. The way I do this is by playing as fast as I can without clouding my judgement. If I intend to fold, I will fold as fast as possible. If I plan to limp re-raise, I limp as fast as I can.

Playing Versus a Donkbet on Axx

Weak players that lead into you on Axx boards often do not have the Ace. They are leading in hopes of representing an Ace. This is a good spot to raise as a bluff and smooth call for value.

check/(snap) calls are usually draws.

The Extra One Percent: Episode Two

HU SNG

First hand against an unknown villain

Blinds 10/20
Stacks: 1,500 each

Hero has Ad Qc in the SB and raises to 60
Villain calls from the BB

Flop (120): Qc 5h 3h
Villain checks, Hero bets 80, Villain raises to 220, Hero raises to 450, Villain (snap) raise All In, Hero calls

Villain shows Qd 8c


How do I adjust to villain based on the information I have just been given?

• Value-bet him thinly because he is willing to put a lot of money in with marginal hands.
• Check back more often with marginal showdown value because he will probably c/r with a wide range.
• Be more likely to make hero calls against him. If he is willing to play for stacks with a marginal hand, he is probably also capable of pulling off some aggressive bluffs.

More Advanced Way of Exploiting

• Based on the first hand we played against villain we know:
• He fast plays with a wide value range.
• Therefore we can also safely assume:
• He fast plays with all his good hands on draw heavy boards.
• Therefore we can also safely assume:
• His c/c range on coordinated boards is weak.
• If that is the case then we can increase our barreling frequencies as his c/c range becomes unprotected. 

Advanced Adjustment We Can Make OOP

• If he is the kind of player who fast plays OOP and plays for stacks with marginal hands.
• Then we can assume that he is also the kind of player who will fast play his strong hands when he is in position.
• We can define his range by increasing our donk-leading range, especially on draw heavy boards where he will likely raise his strong hands.

HU SNG

Blinds 10/20

Stacks: 1,500 each

Villain is SB with XX

Hero is BB with Js Ts

Villain raises to 60 from the SB

Hero calls 60

Flop (120): 7h 8s Kh

Hero bets 80, Villain calls

Turn (280): 3s

Hero bets 200, Villain calls

River (680): 4c

Hero bets 550. Villain folds

The information we gained from the first hand makes this a very profitable donk bet and barrel spot. We know that villain will most likely fast play his Kx hands so when he calls, his range will be a weak made hand that cannot take three barrels. Our hand can turn a lot of cards that will increase our equity or give us the best hand. Spades give us a flush draw. A Jack or Ten most likely gives us the best hand. A Queen gives us an OESD. A Nine gives us the nut straight. Although our hand has a decent amount of equity, we will have no trouble bet/folding the flop. Donk betting gives us more information than checking based on what we know about his tendencies and allow us to exploit him.

The Extra One Percent: Episode One

Heads Up No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 2 players
BTN/SB: t2765 46.08 BBs
Hero (BB): t1235 20.58 BBs

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is BB with A 8
BTN/SB calls t30

Hero ?

The villain is a station that has called every raise the Hero has made. He is very unlikely to limp/fold. Hero's hand should be far ahead of his limp/call range but raising to a standard amount of 180 or 240 would make SPR very awkward. Against a player like this, a big raise to about 450 is most likely the best option. If he folds pre-flop then we collect 120 in chips. He is more likely to call the giant raise and fold to a flop cbet than to call a shove pre-flop. The big raise will create a SPR of less than one which will allow us to shove the flop. 

If a player starts off a husng by limping, he is likely to be passive. When you flop a hand, it is probably better to bet at it yourself than to depend on the villain to bet.

Timing tell: You can pick up a lot of information from insta actions, especially from a fish. 

Timing tell: If you notice an opponent tank pre-flop than showdown a strong hand then you can probably expect that every time he tanks pre-flop, he has a strong range. You can probably also expect him to have a strong range in general when he tanks to make an action whether it be pre-flop or post-flop.

Thin block value bets should be used more often against weak passive players. 

Notes that Saibot took against opponent:

• Probably has a weak limping range.
• Does not look like a reg.
• When he tanks pre-flop, he is more likely to have a strong range.
• He decided NOT to 3-bet AQo early in the match.
• Respect his aggression pre-flop.
• In general, respect his aggression post-flop as well.
• He used small bet size to bluff the river.
• Maybe his small bet sizes are air/bluff.
• Block value bet him.

MTT University 102: Tournament Players' Mindset

What it Means to Invest in a Tournament

• Your money and time invested is a sunk cost.
• Constantly reevaluate your position in a tournament.
• Give no thought to whether you've squandered a big stack, or milked a small stack for a long time.
• There is no "right time" for a certain play, there are just good plays and bad plays.
• Stay in the moment!

What it Means to Bust from a Tournament

• A poker tournament is not Russian roulette.
• Think of any non-first place result as a failure, and you'll find yourself much less worried about busting.
• You don't have a tournament "life" - only an investment.
• Take advantage of others' unwillingness to go broke.

The Coin-Flip Question

• It's the first hand of the main event at the WSOP and you're the 100 chip big blind. They deal the cards and a strange thing happens. Everyone folds to the small blind who moves all-in for 20,000. He then accidentally flips his hand over and revels AKs. You then check your own cards and find the old QQ. You've done your homework and know that you have a 53.8 percent chance of winning if you call. What do you do?

Coin-Flip Question: Arguments for Folding

• A good player wants to use his skill to find a better spot for his chips than this one.
• You don't want to risk your entire tournament on one hand as only a small favorite.
• If someone is playing this bad, he'll give you better chances to get his chips later.

Coin-Flip Question: Argument for Calling

• If this were a 1,024 person event, your chance of winning by constantly getting your chips in with this edge would be more than twice as good as the average player. (0.538^10 = .00203 vs. 1/1,024 = .00098)
• If you win, you get to go to work on your new chips immediately and (hopefully) get more.
• Calling doesn't negate our skill edge, calling is our skill edge (because this is not a small edge).
• Now lets make a comparison between the person who calls and the person who folds. The person who calls and wins gets to use his chips right away in an attempt to build a bigger stack which offers him a higher future expectation. The person who decides to wait for a better spot may or may not find one and when/if he finally does, his expectation is lower because of higher blinds and shallower stacks. In comparison, the one who decides to fold will need to find a spot with an edge that is much greater than 53.8% because he passed up on all the future expectation he could have had with a bigger and deeper stack.

Coin-Flip Question: Other Ways to Say it

• A blackjack player never has more than a few percentage points edge.
• A sports bettor probably can't win more than 60% of the time and he needs to win 52.4% just to break even.
• Small edges add up - just ask the casinos.

Your Tournament Philosophy

• You're there to win chips, not to sit there as long as you can, not to protect the chips you have, and not to try to avoid busting. You're there to maximize your investment.
• Your first consideration is almost always to make the best pure poker play possible without worrying about going broke.
• Tournaments differ from cash games mostly because people play differently in them and the stack sizes are often smaller - not because tournaments require an inherently different strategy.

Summary

• Have no fear of busting, it comes with the territory.
• Think about the big picture - you'll play many tournaments in your poker career.
• Stay in the moment and look for whatever edge you can find there.

Although I am not 100% sold on Matt's arguments for the coin-flip question, he has given me some good things to think about. I am definitely one of those players who tend to pass up on smaller edges in hopes of finding a bigger one later, but I am beginning to think that it is suboptimal to do so.

On one hand, it's natural for a player to want to last as long as possible which often means passing up on smaller edges. On the other hand, it makes a lot of sense to take most if not all edges regardless of how small they are as you would in a cash game. MTTs should play the same as cash games because of the top heavy pay structure but almost everyone tends to play them too tight, passing up on small edges, because they think there is some inherent value in outlasting the next person. 

When it's all said and done, our goal is to accumulate all the chips in play and the only way to do so is to take risks. The question we should ask ourselves is "Is the expectation of this particular spot (risk to reward) higher than the expectation of future spots?" I'll use an example to make this more clear. Is it better to take a 53/47 edge where we either double up or bust or is it better to pass up on this small edge because we can find bigger edges in the future? The question is subjective and difficult to answer, but it also brings to light another question. Are we over estimating our edge and the potential of future edges? Because of how hard it is to answer these questions with any kind of accuracy, it may be better to approach MTTs objectively by taking all edges as they come our way.

I am a bit torn on what mindset is best. I decided to do some research on OPR by checking some of the top players' finish distributions compared to OPR's average. It seems that most of them have a lower Early (~5% vs 10%) and Early Middle (~14% vs 20%) finish, but higher Middle, Middle Late, and Late finishes. I'm not sure what this exactly means but it would seem that they either avoid thin spots Early resulting in lower E and EM finishes or they severely outplay their opponent's post-flop. 

I think once I am able to find and adopt the correct mindset, it will raise my game to the next level. I need to figure this out! I want to know how some of the best players approach MTTs!